Gartner 2015新兴技术发展周期简评：大数据实用化、机器学习崛起

如今最新兴的技术是什么？来看看最新的Gartner 2015新兴技术发展周期报告。自动驾驶汽车与物联网处在顶峰部位，而大数据正失去它新兴技术的威望。Smart Dust将会成为未来十年的新酷技术。

Gartner是一家领先的市场和技术研究公司，在2015新兴技术发展周期中发表了关于新兴技术的报告。

图1：Gartner 2015新兴技术发展周期

下图是与2014年对照图

图2：Gartner 2014新兴技术发展周期

新兴技术周期是关于什么的？

随着技术的进步，我们对新的时髦词汇和技术过于兴奋，当预期结果下降时又开始对它们感到失望。其中的一些新兴技术确实发生了巨大的变化和转变。

从新兴技术周期报告上我们可以看出，这些技术中有哪些可以在新兴市场中生存，并且有可能会成为我们日常生活的一部分。对新兴技术的特别报告是基于成熟度的评估，采用的持续时间，商业利益以及来自112个领域的2000多个技术的未来发展方向。

Gartner新兴技术周期的5个方面：创新触发（潜在的技术突破揭开序幕），膨胀预期的顶峰（早期宣传的成功案例），幻灭的低谷（减少的回馈），启蒙运动（第二和第三代产品出现）和生产力平稳期（主流应用的开始）。

下面是一些与大数据相关的关键技术：

自动驾驶汽车 ，它的位置从2014年的顶峰前上升到了2015年的顶峰位置。据Gartner称，“虽然自动驾驶汽车（如无人驾驶汽车）仍处于萌芽期，但是许多汽车公司将开发自动驾驶汽车作为公司近期战略发展的目标，这样的举措仍然是一个显著的进步”。

物联网（ 智能物体在我们周边协调活动的网络）在这两年同样处于顶峰，在未来几十年一旦大面积部署，它被认为是最具破坏性的技术。

自然语言处理问答 ，它是去年的冠军，而今年则移向低谷。不过可能不会一直这样下去。

大数据， 2015年的炒作周期表上已经看不到它了，2014年的炒作周期表上已经表明它正走向低谷。这可能意味着最受关注的大数据相关技术已经不是一种新兴技术了，它们已经用于实践当中。

“ 机器学习” 在今年的周期表中首次出现，但是已经越过了膨胀预期的顶峰，现在取代了大数据的位置。

数字人文主义 ，Gartner认为人文比技术更重要。可穿戴设备和物联网与机器学习和高级分析同处于周期表的“膨胀预期的顶峰”的顶部。所有的这些趋势预计将会在两到五年内达到平稳期。

市民数据科学家 ：Gartner 2015年发布的新分类——市民数据科学，2014年并没有此项分类，目前处于创新触发期，预计将会在两到五年内达到平稳期。Gartner研究总监亚历山大·林登建议培养“市民数据科学家”——人们在业务方面可能有一些数据技巧，可能获得过数学甚至是社会科学学士学位，并让他们探索和分析数据。

企业3D打印和手势控制技术 正在迅速朝平稳期发展，但是目前处于“启蒙运动”阶段。

数字灵巧是新兴的技术 ，Gartner研究副总裁 Matt Cain说，“如今的员工拥有更大程度的数字灵巧性。他们用家里的无线网络，连接和管理各种设备，并在他们个人生活的几乎每个方面都使用应用程序和Web服务”。Gartner列出了几种IT组织应该利用员工数字灵巧的方式。

数据安全 ，如今相当关键的方面，但是出奇的是它并不算是新兴的，炒作周期表显示它处于顶峰前面，靠近创新触发区域。

所有的这些技术都没有进入生产力平稳期，不像2014年的语音识别。随着更多的日益成熟的技术，这一情况可能在今后几年会有所改变。

你认为哪些新兴技术会被淘汰，哪些又会在炒作中幸存呢？

英语原文：

Which are the most hyped technologies today? Check out Gartner’s latest 2015 Hype Cycle Report. Autonomous cars & IoT stay at the peak while big data is losing its prominence. Smart Dust is a new cool technology for the next decade!

What’s the Hype Cycle about?

As technology advances, we all get over-excited about new buzz-words & trends in technology and then disappointed when expectations of results go down. Some of these emerging technologies do make tremendous changes and a huge shift.

The hype cycle gives us an idea of which of these technologies actually survive the market hype and have a potential to become a part of our daily life. The special report on emerging technologies is based on the assessment of maturity, duration for adoption, business benefit and future direction of more than 2,000 technologies, grouped into 112 areas.

Five regions of Gartner’s Hype cycle: Innovation Trigger(potential technology breakthrough kicks off), Peak of Inflated Expectations(Success stories through early publicity), Trough of Disillusionment( waning interest), Slope of Enlightenment (2nd & 3rd generation products appear) and Plateau of Productivity (Mainstream adoption starts).

Here are some of the key Big Data-related technologies:

Autonomous vehicles, their placement is shown to have shifted from pre-peak 2014 to peak 2015 of the Hype Cycle. According to Gartner, “while autonomous vehicles(like driverless cars) are still embryonic, this movement still represents a significant advancement, with all major automotive companies putting autonomous vehicles on their near-term roadmaps”.

Internet of Things (Network of Intelligent objects around us coordinating activities) remains consistently almost at the Peak in both years. It is thought of as the most disruptive technology in decades once widely deployed.

Natural Language Process Question Answering, last year’s winner, is on its slide down to the Trough. It may not make it through.

Big data is no where to be seen the hype cycle 2015 where as last year it is shown to enter trough of disillusionment. This may mean that the most talked about big data related technologies are now into practice and no more a hype.

“Machine Learning” made its first appearance on the chart this year, but already past the peak of inflated expectations and now takes the place of Big Data.

Digital Humanism, as Gartner defines makes people better, not technology better.Wearables and the Internet of ThingsMore, the established trends are at the top of the “peak of inflated expectations” on the cycle, along with machine learning and advanced analytics. All those trends are expected to plateau in between two and five years.

Citizen Data Scientist: Gartner this new class of Citizen Data Science and is shown in 2015 but not in 2014 and is expecting to reach plateau in 2-5 years in the innovation trigger region.Gartner research director Alexander Linden suggests cultivating “citizen data scientists”—people on the business side that may have some data skills, possibly from a math or even social science degree—and putting them to work exploring and analyzing data.

Enterprise 3D printing and gesture control technologies are heading for the plateau fast but are currently placed in the “slope of enlightenment”.

Digital dexterity is new, Today’s employees possess a greater degree of digital dexterity,” said Matt Cain, research vice president at Gartner. “They operate their own wireless networks at home, attach and manage various devices, and use apps and Web services in almost every facet of their personal lives. Gartner has outlined several ways in which the IT organization should exploit employees’ digital dexterity.

Data security which is rather a critical discussion today seems to be surprisingly less of a hype and is shown as “Digital Security” in pre-peak and close to trigger region of the hype cycle.

None of these technologies entered the plateau of productivity unlike Speech Recognition last year. This may change in the upcoming years with more technologies growing mature.

End.