预测：2019年区块链将赋能制造业

数据观 • 6年前扫码分享

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　 原标题：How Blockchain Can Improve Manufacturing In 2019

2019年区块链将如何改善制造业?

　　数据观|和璟祎(编译)

　　 •The business value-add of blockchain will grow to slightly more than $176B by 2025, then exceed $3.1T by 2030 according to Gartner.

•Typical product recalls cost $8M, and many could be averted with improved track-and-traceability enabled by blockchain.

•Combining blockchain and IoT will revolutionize product safety, track-and-traceability, warranty management, Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul (MRO), and lead to new usage-based business models for smart, connected products.

•By 2023, 30% of manufacturing companies with more than $5B in revenue will have implemented Industry 4.0 pilot projects using blockchain, up from less than 5% today according to Gartner.

•高德纳(Gartner)数据显示，到2025年，区块链的业务增值将略高于1760亿美元，到2030年将有望突破3.1万亿美元。

•典型的产品召回成本为800万美元，大多可以通过增进区块链的溯源性来避免。

•区块链和物联网的结合将彻底变革产品的安全、跟踪溯源、保修管理、维护、维修和检修(MRO)，并引领一轮基于智联网产品的新兴商业模式。

•高德纳(Gartner)的数据还显示，到2023年，营收超过50亿美元的制造企业中，将有30%利用区块链技术实施工业4.0的试点项目，高于目前不到5%的企业。

Blockchain’s greatest potential to deliver business value is in manufacturing. Increasing visibility across every area of manufacturing starting with suppliers, strategic sourcing, procurement, and supplier quality to shop floor operations including machine-level monitoring and service, blockchain can enable entirely new manufacturing business models. Supply chains are the foundation of every manufacturing business, capable of making use of blockchain’s distributed ledger structure and block-based approach to aggregating value-exchange transactions to improve supply chain efficiency first. By improving supplier order accuracy, product quality, and trace-and-traceability, manufacturers will be able to meet delivery dates, improve product quality and sell more.

区块链在商业价值中的最大潜力源于制造业。从供应商、战略采购、采购和供应商质量到包含机器级监控和服务的车间操作，区块链可以实现全新的制造业务模式。供应链是每个制造企业的基础，它能够首先利用区块链的分布式账本结构和基于块的方法聚合价值交换交易，提高供应链效率。通过提高供应商订单的准确性、产品质量和跟踪溯源性，制造商将能够满足交货日期，提高产品质量和销售量。

Capgemini Research Institute’s recent study, Does blockchain hold the key to a new age of supply chain transparency and trust? provide valuable insights into how blockchain can improve supply chains and manufacturing.Capgemini surveyed 731 organizations globally regarding their existing and planned blockchain initiatives. Initial interviews yielded 447 organizations who are currently experimenting with or implementing blockchain. Please see pages 25 & 26 of the study for additional details regarding the methodology.

凯捷管理顾问公司(Capgemini，一家全球性资讯科技服务管理领导厂商)最近的一项研究：区块链是否掌握了新时代供应链透明度和信任度的关键? 这项研究对于区块链如何改善供应链和制造业提供了有价值的洞见。Capgemini调查了全球731个组织，调查了他们现有的以及计划中的区块链计划。首批受访者中产生447个组织，目前正在试验或实施区块链。

Key takeaways of the study include the following:

这项研究的主要结论包括:

Typical product recalls cost $8M, and many could be averted with improved track-and-traceability enabled by blockchain. Capgemini found that there was 456 food recalls alone in the U.S. last year, costing nearly $3.5B. Blockchain’s general ledger structure provides a real-time audit trail for all transactions secured against modifications making it ideal for audit and compliance-intensive industries.

典型的产品召回成本为800万美元，大多可以通过增进区块链的溯源性来避免。Capgemini研究机构发现，去年仅美国就有456起食品召回事件，花费近35亿美元。区块链的总分类帐结构提供了一个实时审计跟踪所有交易担保的修改，使其成为审计和合规密集型行业的理想选择。

Gaining greater cost savings (89%), enhancing traceability (81%) and enhancing transparency (79%) are the top three drivers behind manufacturer’s blockchain investments today. Additional drivers include increasing revenues (57%), reducing risks (50%), creating new business opportunities (44%) and being more customer-centric (38%). The following graphic from the study illustrates the manufacturer's priorities for blockchain. Capgemini finds that improving track-and-traceability is a primary driver across all manufacturers, consistent with the broader trend of manufacturers adopting software applications that improve this function today. That’s also understandable given how additional regulatory compliance requirements are coming in 2019 and those manufacturers competing in highly regulated industries including aerospace & defense, medical devices, and pharma are exploring how blockchain can give them a competitive edge now

节省更多成本(89%)、提高可追溯性(81%)和提高透明度(79%)是目前制造商在区块链投资背后的三大驱动力。其他的驱动力包括增加收入(57%)，降低风险(50%)，创造新的商业机会(44%)和以客户为中心(38%)。下图说明了制造商对于区块链的优先考虑因素。Capgemini研究机构发现，改进跟踪和溯源性是所有制造商的主要驱动力，这与当今制造商采用软件应用程序改进此功能的广泛趋势一致。考虑到2019年将会有更多法规出台，那些活跃于航空航天国防、医疗设备和制药等严格监管行业里的制造商们正在探索区块链如何能带来竞争优势，这也是可以理解的。

Digital marketplaces, tracking critical supply chain parameters, tracking components quality, preventing counterfeit products, and tracking asset maintenance are the five areas Capgemini predicts blockchain will see the greatest adoption. Based on interviews with industry experts and startups, Capgemini found 24 blockchain use cases which are compared by level of adoption and complexity in the graphic below. The use cases reflect how managing supplier contracts is already emerging as one of the most popular blockchain use cases for manufacturing organizations today and will accelerate as compliance becomes even more important in 2019.

数字市场、跟踪关键供应链参数、跟踪组件质量、防止假冒产品和跟踪资产维护是Capgemini预测区块链应用最广泛的五个领域。通过对行业专家和初创公司的采访，Capgemini发现了24个区块链的使用案例，这些案例在下面的图表中按采用级别和复杂性进行了比较。这些用例反映了如何管理供应商合同已经成为当今制造业最流行的区块链使用案例之一，并将在2019年随着合规性变得愈加重要。

Manufacturers have the most at-scale deployments of blockchain today, leading all industries included in the study. Blockchain adoption is still nascent across all industries included in the study, with 6% of manufacturers having at-scale implementations today. Customer products manufacturers lead in pilots, with 15% actively [purusing blockchain in limited scope today. And retailers trail all industries with 91% having only proofs of concept.

目前，制造商在区块链领域进行了大规模的部署，领先于研究中的所有行业。在所有被纳入研究的行业中，区块链的采用仍处于萌芽阶段，目前有6%的制造商实现了大规模应用。客户产品制造商在试点中处于领先地位，目前有15%的客户在有限范围内使用区块链。而零售商落后于所有行业，91%的零售商只有概念的证明。

Combining IoT and blockchain at the container level in supply chains increases authenticity, transparency, compliance to product and contractual requirements while reducing counterfeiting. In highly regulated industries including Aerospace & Defense (A&D), Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG), medical devices, and pharma, combining IoT and blockchain provides real-time data on container conditions, tamper-proof storage, each shipment’s locational history and if there have been changes in temperature and product condition. Capgemini sees use cases where a change in a shipment’s temperature as measured by a sensor change sends alerts regarding contractual compliance of perishable meats and produce, averting the potential of bad product quality and rejected shipments once they reach their destination.

在供应链的集装箱层面，将物联网和区块链结合在一起，增加了产品的真实性、透明度、以及产品合规性和合同要求，同时减少了仿冒品。在航空航天和国防(A&D)、消费品包装(CPG)、医疗设备和制药等监管严格的行业中，物联网和区块链的结合提供了集装箱状况、防篡改存储、每批货物的位置历史以及温度和产品状况是否发生变化的实时数据。Capgemini发现，在某些用例中，通过传感器测量的货物温度的变化会发出关于易腐烂肉类和农产品的合同合规性的警报，从而避免了产品质量不佳的潜在风险，避免货物到达目的地后被拒收。

Capgemini found that 13% of manufacturers are Pacesetters and are either implementing blockchain at scale or have pilots in at least one site. Over 60% of Pacesetters believe that blockchain is already transforming the way they collaborate with their partners. Encouraged by these results, Pacesetters are set to increase their blockchain investment by 30% in the next three years. They lead early stage experimenters and all implementers on three core dimensions of organizational readiness. These include end-to-end visibility across functions, detailed and defined supportive processes, and availability of the right talent to succeed.

Capgemini发现，13%的制造商是领军者，要么在大规模实施区块链，要么在至少一个地点进行试点。超过60%的先行者相信区块链已经改变了他们与合作伙伴的合作方式。在这些结果的鼓舞下，领军者计划在未来三年将区块链的投资增加30%。他们从三个核心维度上引领了早期试行者和所有实施者的组织意愿，包括跨功能的端到端可见性，详细和明确的支持过程，以及有成功天赋的可用人才。

Lack of a clear ROI, immature technology and regulatory challenges are the top three hurdles Pacesetter-class manufacturers face in getting blockchain initiatives accepted and into production. All implementations face these three challenges in addition to having to overcome the lack of complementary IT systems at the partner organizations. The following graphic compares the hurdles all manufacturers face in getting blockchain projects implemented by the level of manufacturers adoption success (Pacesetter, early-stage experimenters, all implementers).

缺乏明确的ROI(投资回报率)，不成熟的技术和监管挑战是先锋制造商在接受区块链计划并投入生产时面临的三大障碍。除了必须克服合作伙伴组织中缺乏互补的IT系统之外，所有区块链计划实施都面临这三个挑战。下面的图表比较了所有制造商在不同级别(领军者、早期试行者、所有实现者)实施区块链项目时所面临的障碍。