Business Insider预测金融科技：中国将于2020年发布数字货币

钛媒体注：近日，Business Insider 发布了对于2020年科技行业30大预测，其中包括对于金融科技行业的五大预测。Business Insider 认为，在2019年引起全球关注的Libra将不会在2020发布，但中国将发布数字货币，此举将推动其他国家的发行计划。

此外，Business Insider 还提出了其对南美洲金融科技发展的看好。其认为，2020年南美金融科技领域的单季度融资额将达到10亿美元的历史最高水平。

以下为Business Insider 报告原文，经钛媒体编译：

2019 marked a dynamic and eventful year for the fintech industry, with big tech players pushing deeper into financial services, corporate giants and governments alike turning their focus to digital currencies, and the industry shifting its attention from fintechs’ user growth numbers to sustainability.

2019年对于金融科技行业而言是充满活力并且意义重大的一年，各大科技巨头纷纷深入金融服务领域，企业和政府纷纷将重心转向数字货币，整个行业的关注重心逐渐由用户增长转移到可持续性。

Further, both incumbents and fintechs have been exploring new business models to diversify their revenue streams, players like Robinhood and Freetrade have been disrupting the trading industry by transforming the rules of the game, and emerging markets — such as Latin America — have come to the fore as vibrant fintech ecosystems.

此外，业内外人士都在探索新的商业模式，以使其收入来源多样化，Robinhood和Freetrade等公司已经通过改变游戏规则扰乱了贸易行业，新兴市场如拉丁美洲已经成为充满活力的金融科技生态系统。

Based on these developments, our proprietary research, and the trends we’ve seen intensifying as we head into the new year, here are our top five predictions for fintech in 2020.

基于这些发展、我们的专有研究以及我们在新的一年中看到的不断加剧的趋势，以下是我们对金融科技2020年的五大预测。

1、Libra won’t launch in 2020, but China will launch a digital currency and push other jurisdictions to follow suit — here’s why:

Libra将不会在2020年上市，但中国将发布数字货币，此举将推动其他国家的发行计划，理由如下：

Facebook remains confident it can deliver on Libra, but since the project has been plagued by criticism, we don't think it will launch in 2020. In June, Facebook announced its plan to launch its cryptocurrency, Libra, with 28 partners in H1 2020. Many regulatory bodies and governments have scrutinized the project since then — Mark Zuckerberg had to testify in front of Congress amid concerns that Libra could facilitate money laundering, endanger users' assets, and give Facebook more power, for instance. 

Facebook仍有信心发布Libra，但由于该项目一直饱受批评，我们认为它不会在2020年推出。2019年6月，Facebook宣布计划在2020年上半年与28家合作伙伴推出加密货币Libra。从那时起，许多监管机构及政府就开始仔细审查这个项目——他们担心Libra可能助长洗钱行为、危及用户资产并赋予Facebook更多权力，这使得马克·扎克伯格不得不在国会面前举办听证会以解释这一切不会发生。

The loss of support from some of its key members, including Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal, has also put a damper on the project. But Facebook has already logged over 51,000 test transactions in November and insists it can resolve government worries and launch within H2 2020.

此前Libra联盟的一些核心成员，包括Visa、Mastercard和PayPal等均表示不再支持这个项目，也给其带来了阻碍。但Facebook在11月已经记录了超过51000笔测试交易，并坚称它可以解决政府的担忧，并在2020年下半年推出。

This confidence is likely fueled by a strong track record of getting its way, including with the acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp, despite regulatory concerns. However, we think this time will be different given the slew of voices globally that have raised concerns and mounting antitrust scrutiny against all big tech giants — if at all, Libra won't launch in the next 12 months.

或许是包括收购Instagram和WhatsApp在内的利好给了Facebook信心，缓解了其在监管方面的担忧。然而，我们认为这次将是不同的，因为全球范围内有越来越多的人民开始支持对对所有大型科技巨头进行反垄断审查，即使Libra在接下来的12个月内不会上市。

Meanwhile, China will launch its own crypto in 2020, leading a number of other countries to ramp up similar efforts. Although Facebook's crypto plans are looking bleak, China's central bank has gotten close to launching its own crypto: It began researching the venture in 2018, and it was reported in August that the crypto was "close to being out."

与此同时，中国将在2020年推出自己的加密技术，并引领其他一些国家加快这方面进程。尽管Facebook的加密计划看起来很黯淡，但中国央行已经接近推出自己的加密方案：它在2018年开始研究这项业务，今年8月有报道称，加密技术“即将面世”。

We expect this will happen in 2020, as it has already started testing the digital currency in two cities. This will push an avalanche of other major authorities, particularly the Bank of England and central banks in the EU — with Sweden being a current forerunner — to take steps in that direction to avoid falling behind China.

我们预计这将在2020年实现，因为已经有两个城市开始测试数字货币。这将促使其他国家的有关部门，特别是英国央行和欧盟各国央行（瑞典是当前的先行者）纷纷采取措施，避免落后于中国。

2、South America’s ntech funding will reach a historic high of $1 billion within a single quarter next year.

南美金融科技领域的单季度融资额将达到10亿美元的历史最高水平。 

Fintechs in the region raised $704 million in Q3 2019, marking a record quarter in terms of funding, per CB Insights, and there have been four mega rounds so far this year, including Brazil's Nubank securing $400 million in July and Argentina's Ualá snagging $150 million in November. Investors in these companies include Tencent and SoftBank, while Goldman Sachs' special situations group has also set its sights on investing in the region's fintechs.

2019年第三季度，该地区的金融科技企业共获得7.04亿美元融资，根据CB Insights的数据，这是有史以来融资规模最大的一个季度。而今年迄今为止已有4轮大型融资，其中包括巴西的Nubank在7月份获得了4亿美元的融资，阿根廷的Ula在11月份获得了1.5亿美元的融资。这些公司的投资者包括腾讯和软银，而高盛旗下的投资集团也在考虑投资该地区的金融科技行业。

The large number of unbanked consumers, combined with an uncompetitive financial industry that's dominated by a few incumbents, have created a fertile ground for disruption, especially since smartphone and internet penetration across the region are accelerating. For instance, three-quarters of Brazilians used smartphones in 2017, and this figure is expected to tick up to 86% by 2025, per GSMA data.

大量无银行存款的消费者，加上一个由少数当权者主导的没有竞争力的金融行业，尤其是智能手机和互联网在该地区的加速渗透，为颠覆创造了肥沃的土壤。例如，2017年仅有四分之三的巴西人在使用智能手机，而根据GSMA的数据，这一数字在2025年将达到86%。

Coupled with the effects of supportive regulatory initiatives — Brazil published guidelines for open banking implementation in April 2019, while Argentina's central bank authorities introduced an initiative in 2018 that enables interoperability between traditional bank accounts and accounts operated by nonbank entities, as examples — we expect South American fintechs to reach quarterly funding of $1 billion in 2020.

加上支持性监管举措的影响——例如巴西于2019年4月发布了开放银行业务实施指南，而阿根廷央行当局则在2018年推出了一项举措，以实现传统银行账户与非银行实体运营账户之间的互操作性——我们预计南美金融科技公司将在2020年获得10亿美元的季度融资。 

南美洲具有VC背景的金融科技投资基金规模

3、A handful of the most innovative incumbent insurers will lead the way on Insurance-as-a- Service (IaaS).

少数最具创新精神的保险公司将引领“保险即服务(IaaS)”的发展。

Developments in banking are often good indicators of upcoming trends in the insurance industry. One trend that accelerated in the banking space in 2019 was Banking-as-a-Service (BaaS), which saw neobanks and incumbents — including BBVA and Starling — open up their APIs to let third parties build banking solutions using their licensing and underlying infrastructure. And as a number of full-stack insurtechs, which have their own insurance licenses and own the whole value chain, encroach on incumbent insurers' turf — much like neobanks are doing in the banking space — we expect to see a few insurers turn this threat into an opportunity by allowing both incumbents and startups to leverage their technology and licensing to replace legacy IT or build innovative business-to- customer solutions.

银行业的发展情况往往是判断保险业未来趋势的良好指标。2019年银行业加速发展的一个趋势是银行即服务（BaaS），新银行和现有企业（包括BBVA和Starling）开放了他们的API，让第三方利用其许可证和基础设施构建银行解决方案。而且，随着一些拥有自己的保险执照、拥有整个价值链的全套保险技术公司占领了现有保险公司的地盘，就像新银行在银行领域所做的那样，我们预计会有几家保险公司通过允许在职者、初创企业等利用他们的技术和许可来取代传统的IT或构建创新的企业对客户解决方案，将这一挑战转化为机遇。 

We expect Munich Re, which invested$250 million in insurtech Next Insurance earlier this year, and Zurich Insurance, which has already struck a number of fintech partnerships, to take this approach next year, while Allianz will lead this trend, having recently announced an IaaS offering with Microsoft. By adopting this model, insurers will be able to generate new revenue streams and turn some competitors into customers, while staying on top of the latest digital trends in the industry.

我们预计，今年早些时候在保险科技领域投资2.5亿美元的慕尼黑再保险公司和已经达成多项金融科技合作伙伴关系的苏黎世保险公司明年将采取这一做法，而最近已宣布与微软合作推出IaaS产品的安联将引领这一趋势。通过采用这种模式，保险公司将能够创造新的收入来源，并将一些竞争对手转变为客户，同时掌握行业最新的数字趋势。

4、E*Trade will be snapped up in 2020 — but not by Goldman Sachs.

券商巨头E*Trade将被收购，但收购者不是高盛。 

Players like Robinhood have shaken up the US online investment space by undercutting incumbent brokerage firms with their fee- free commission models. This led Charles Schwab to become the first major online broker to eliminate its $4.95 per-trade fee in October — a move that was quickly matched by TD Ameritrade, E*Trade, and Fidelity. Now, the industry is bracing for a wave of consolidation as eliminated fees force incumbents to seek ways to cut costs to offset declining revenues.

像罗比尼奥这样的公司已经用他们的免费佣金模式削弱了现有的经纪公司，从而动摇了美国的在线投资空间。这使得查尔斯施瓦布（Charles Schwab）成为第一家在10月份取消每笔4.95美元交易费的大型在线经纪公司，而TD-Ameritrade、E*trade和Fidelity也迅速采取了这一举措。现在，这个行业正准备迎接一波浪潮——合并被取消的费用迫使在职者寻求削减成本的方法来抵消收入的下降。

And with Charles Schwab having agreed to acquire TD Ameritrade for $26 billion in late November, we think E*Trade is the next most likely acquisition target: The smaller peer will need to look for potential buyers following the announced deal between the US’ two biggest publicly traded discount brokers.

鉴于查尔斯施瓦布（Charles Schwab）已于11月底同意以260亿美元收购TD Ameritrade，我们认为E*Trade是下一个最有可能的收购目标：规模较小的同行在美国两家最大的上市折扣经纪公司宣布交易后，将需要寻找潜在买家。 

But while Goldman Sachs has been rumored to be looking into an E*Trade acquisition, it’s reportedly also exploring a move for US Bancorp. We believe pursuing a merger with the latter makes more sense for Goldman since the deal would allow it to scale faster, given US Bancorp’s size, and avoid getting too invested in the battered discount trading space.

但高盛被传闻正在尽调收购案时，也有报道称其还在为美国银行集团（Bancorp）探索一项举措。我们认为，与后者合并对高盛更有意义，因为考虑到我们银行集团的规模，这项交易将使高盛能够更快地扩大规模，避免在遭受重创的折价交易领域获得过多投资。

5、In the aftermath of WeWork’s failed IPO, Lemonade will have to contend with another year of staying private.

受WeWork IPO失败影响，Lemonade IPO计划将推迟一年。

News about the US insurtech unicorn wanting to go public first emerged in June this year, when Israeli news outlet CTech reported that Lemonade was looking to raise over $500 million during an IPO in New York. However, in November, sources said that the insurtech postponed plans to go public this year — which it wanted to do as early as August or September 2019 — amid concerns over how fast-growing fintechsare perceived by the market.

有关美国保险科技独角兽（insuretech unicorn）希望上市的消息最早出现在今年6月，当时以色列新闻机构CTech报道称，柠檬水公司（Lemonade）希望在纽约IPO期间筹集逾5亿美元资金。然而，在11月，消息人士表示，Insuretech推迟了今年上市的计划，该公司最早希望在2019年8月或9月上市，因为人们担心Fintech的增长速度有多快被市场所感知。 

WeWork's failed IPO earlier this year likely triggered the decision, as the company's potential float was met with concern around its business model and ability to become profitable. While the insurtech made real strides toward building a profitable business this year — it reduced its loss ratio from 99% at the end of 2018 to 78% in Q3 2019 — it still has a long road to sustainability, with the industry average falling between 65% and 70%, so we don't anticipate the insurtech to go public in the next 12 months.

今年早些时候，WeWork的IPO失败可能引发这一决定，由于公司的潜在浮亏受到了外界对其商业模式和盈利能力的关注。虽然Insuretech今年在建立盈利业务方面取得了实质性进展——它将亏损率从2018年底的99%降至2019年第三季度的78%——但鉴于行业平均水平在65%至70%之间，它的可持续性仍任重道远，因此我们预计Insuretech不会在未来12个月内上市。

（本文首发钛媒体，编译 | 石万佳）

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