【钛媒体双语】BI预测2020：在争夺年轻人这件事上，Facebook将败给Snapchat、和来自中国的TikTok

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从金融、零售、医疗健康到内容产业，数字化浪潮正在席卷所有产业，没有哪个行业可以远离数字化而生存。

美国商业研究机构 Business Insider（下文简称“BI”） 提出：2020年将是数字化转型的落地元年。

BI在近期发布的《2020年度重要科技趋势预测报告》（30 Big Tech Predictions for 2020）中，针对银行业、通讯技术、数字化媒体、电商支付、金融科技及数字医疗六大领域提出了前瞻预测。（全文中文版已由钛媒体翻译出品，加入钛媒体Pro即可下载全文，注册成为钛媒体Pro会员：http://m.tmtpost.com/pro 。）

其中，针对数字化媒体行业，BI提出了五大趋势预测，钛媒体编译如下（本文为中英双语对照）：

2019 marked a major year of transformation in digital media: Tech giants including Google, Facebook, Apple, and Amazon faced mounting regulatory scrutiny from US lawmakers on multiple fronts, including antitrust, data privacy, and messaging;

2019年对于数字化媒体来说是重要的变革之年。过去一年中，谷歌、Facebook、苹果和亚马逊在内的科技巨头，均面临着美国立法者在反垄断、数据隐私、信息传递方面更为严格的监管审查。

Media giants including Disney launched or announced they would launch new streaming video services as cord-cutting losses accelerated; Spotify invested heavily in podcasting and we saw the launch of the buzzy subscription podcast experiment Luminary; and emergent platforms and media experiences exploded into the mainstream, including short-form video-sharing app TikTok, free-to-play digital games like Fortnite, and live-streaming platforms like Twitch and Mixer. 

媒体巨头迪士尼宣布推出新的流媒体服务（可参考阅读钛媒体深度报道 《迪士尼们合围Netflix》），以应对电视订阅服务的亏损扩大；Spotify推出播客平台并大量投入，同时业内也出现了诸如 Luminary 这样的会员订阅制播客平台。实时直播和体验式内容平台迅速地成为了内容主流，包括短视频分享平台 TikTok，免费数字游戏 Fortnite，实时在线流媒体平台 Twitch 和 Mixer 等。

Based on the year’s developments, our own proprietary research, and industry trends we’re watching unfold, here are our top five predictions for the digital media space in 2020.

基于今年的发展，和我们自己的专有研究，以及我们正在观察的行业趋势，以下是我们对2020年数字媒体领域的五大预测。

1. Spotify will grow to account for 25% of global podcast listening as it doubles down on discoverability and exclusive original content — and much of that share will come directly from Apple.

1.全球播客市场中，Spotify将因其内容的可探索度和独创性攫取25%的客户。苹果仍将获取大部分的市场份额。

Despite Android's dominance worldwide, Apple dominates podcast listening via its Podcasts app, with 63% market share as of February 2019, per Libsyn analysis of App Annie data. But Spotify has already become the second-largest podcast platform,with about 10% share of listening, double its 5% share in December 2017. And in recent months, Spotify has seen significant increases in listening as it invests more aggressively in the space: About 14% of Spotify's MAU base now listen to podcasts, and total podcast hours streamed jumped 39% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in Q3 2019.

根据Annie2019年2月的相关数据，尽管安卓在全球占主导地位,苹果主导了播客收听应用，占据了市场的63%。但Spotify已经成为了第二大播客平台，占据了10%的市场份额，与2017年12月5%的份额相比翻番。在最近几个月的大规模投入之下，Spotify平台的音频流量有了显著增长，14%的MAU来自音频用户，并且全部流媒体时长在2019年第三季度季比季增长了39%。

We think Spotify will drive further podcast listening on its app thanks to an emphasis on discoverability and original content — its two biggest advantages over Apple:

我们认为Spotify的发展会进一步推动客户端播客的发展，这得益于其与苹果相比内容的可发现性和原创性。

• Discoverability. Apple Podcasts currently has greater volume (800,000 podcasts) versus Spotify (500,000), but we expect that discoverability is more valuable than sheer content volume, which is meaningless if users struggle to find shows they're interested in. In terms of enhancing discovery, we believe Spotify's emphasis on expanding algorithm-driven personalized playlists — an approach it has honed with music — will beat Apple's emphasis on indexing. In June, Apple promised search enhancements on Podcasts, but these features are likely still limited.

● 可发现性：苹果播客目前有超过80万容量的内容，高于Spotify的50万。但是我们认为内容的可搜索性比纯粹的容量更重要——譬如，用户若很难在界面中找到自己喜欢的节目，体验感就会很差。在加强节目的可发现性方面，Spotify强调用算法驱动个性化播放列表——一种方法来优化音乐内容，这会打败苹果强调普通索引的方式。去年6月，苹果承诺将会强化播客的搜索功能，但是这些功能似乎依然有局限性。

• Exclusive original shows. To boost orig-inals development — which we expect can drive loyalty — Spotify spent $400 million in 2019 on podcast-focused acquisitions, including Parcast and Gimlet Media, and struck output deals with mega-talent including the Obamas, Jordan Peele, and Mark Wahlberg. All told, it boasts a slate of more than 30 Spotify-exclusive pods. For its part, Apple has reportedly sought exclusive podcast rights, but so far has no exclusive shows of its own.

● 独家原创内容：为了提升用户的忠诚度，加速原创内容的发展，Spotify在2019年耗资4亿美元用于播客相关的并购，包括Parcast和Gimlet Media；还有与奥巴马夫妇、Jordan Peele和Mark Wahlberg达成了人才输出协议。这使得Spotify拥有了超过30个专属播客内容。就目前而言，苹果正在寻求节目的独家播放权，但到目前为止还没有自己的独家节目。

主要播客App的市场占有率

2. Video game developers will add commerce features that go beyond in-game purchases, following the lead of social platforms that have seen success with shopping integrations.

2.视频游戏开发商在试水社交功能能够成功实现交易（收入）后，将不再局限于游戏内购买的商业模式。

2019 has been a big year for shopping integrations across social media: Platforms from Snapchat to Instagram have been building shopping into the user experience in order to eliminate friction in the advertisement to purchase funnel.

2019年是社交媒体购物整合的重要一年：从Snapchat到Instagram等平台一直将购物以用户体验的方式呈现，以此来消除广告购买渠道中的摩擦。

As more users pick up on this behavior, the opportunity for wider integration across the digital landscape will blossom — and carry over into the gaming world. 

随着越来越多的用户注意到这种行为，跨数字领域的更广泛整合的机会将会开花结果，并延伸到游戏世界。

Video games have long offered in-game purchases that allow users to advance levels, change their in-game avatar's outfit, or unlock key features. And as gaming becomes increasingly mainstream — there are now over 2.5 billion gamers worldwide, up from 2.3 billion in 2018, per Newzoo — as a destination for both gameplay and for socializing, video game publishers could begin to build out broader commerce features to further monetize those users.

视频游戏通过内购来升级、获取装备或解锁隐藏关卡的模式已经由来已久。并且随着游戏变得越来越主流——从2018年的23亿增加到了如今全球超过25亿的游戏玩家，基于娱乐和社交，视频游戏开发商可以开发更多的商业功能用于变现。

For instance, if a player purchases a certain kind of sneaker for their in-game avatar, they may eventually wish to purchase those shoes in real life as well. Game publishers could facilitate that sort of shopping behavior through  a portal that matches up in-game and physical products, and which pulls from payment information that’s already on hand due to previous in-game purchases.

例如，如果玩家为他们的游戏角色购买了《阿凡达》式运动鞋，他们可能最终也希望在现实生活中购买这些鞋子。游戏发行商可以通过一个将游戏内产品和实体产品进行匹配的门户网站来促进这类购物行为，该门户网站还可以获取由于之前的游戏内购买而产生的支付信息。

Such integrations also create space for creative promotions, like exclusive products that are only available to those playing a new season of a game or to those who have reached a certain level in a game, creating a virtuous cycle for game publishers.

这样的整合也为创意推广创造了空间，比如，独家产品只对新一季游戏玩家或游戏中达到一定水平的玩家开放，为游戏发行商创造了一个良性循环。

Some publishers and brands have already joined together for deals that approximate this behavior:

The wildly popular game League of Legends, which makes money from in-game purchases, recently inked a partnership with luxury brand Louis Vuitton. For the partnership, Louis Vuitton created a capsule collection and designed skins for LoL avatars. The collection, which launched on its own site, sold out in Europe in less than an hour. And earlier this year, Adidas designed a Snapchat game to launch a pair of cleats, which included an option for users to “try on” the shoes within the game.

一些游戏发行商和品牌方已经联合起来进行类似交易: 广受欢迎的游戏《英雄联盟》，最近就和奢侈品牌路易威登签了合作协议。为了合作，路易威登创建了一个胶囊收集和设计皮肤的LoL化身。这个系列自从在其官网上推出后，在欧洲不足一个小时便售罄。今年早些时候，Adidas还设计了一款Snapchat的游戏，推出了“试穿”功能。

3.The 2020 US election will be a breaking point for social platform content moderation,leading US lawmakers to propose legislation that regulates the space in 2021.

3.2020年的美国大选，将是社交平台内容温和化的转折点，并将促使2021年互联网内容的监管立法工作。

The 2016 US presidential election dredged up a great deal of public concern about the role social platforms play in disseminating misinformation. Since then, the major social platforms have undergone multiple congressional investigations on the matter, made changes to content policy and enforcement, and their CEOs have issued grandiose promises to solve the problem of content moderation. The result has been a set of disparate policies and approaches to content moderation, spanning issues from political advertising to hate speech.

2016年的美国总统大选，引发了公众对社交平台在传播中产生的误导信息的极大关注。从那以后，主要的社交平台经历了国会对此事的调查，修改了一些内容政策，并且这些平台的CEO都对于解决内容中立的问题做出了郑重的承诺。自此，一系列不同的政策和方法都用于促进内容的中立，包括政治宣传和仇恨类言论。

These policies have all been implemented with mixed results, but the 2020 election will likely serve as a stress test measuring the efficacy of these efforts. On the whole, we think the election will highlight platform vulnerabilities, and that misinformation and other harmful election-related content will spread on their platforms, and initiate a second round of public and regulatory outcry.

这些政策的实施带来的结果有利有弊。不过，2020年大选被认为是这些措施出台是否合理的压力考量。总的来说，这次大选会将会放大社交平台的脆弱性、信息误导性和其它与选举相关的伤害性内容，并且会引来第二轮公众和监管机构的呼吁。

That will ultimately lead US officials to propose comprehensive legislation that regulates content moderation on social platforms, and we think they’ll follow the European Union’s lead on the issue.The EU has become the agenda-setter in terms of digital policy, as legislation like GDPR has become the framework for global data privacy regulation, for instance.

这最终会使美国官方提出社交媒体内容审核方面的综合立法，并且我们希望他们能够效仿欧盟在这方面的做法。在数字政策方面，欧盟已经成为议程制定者，就像GDPR已成为全球数字隐私条例的框架。

 Along those same lines, we expect US lawmakers to borrow from the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s plans to roll out new, comprehensive legislation aimed at liability and safety on digital platforms, called the Digital Services Act, within the next two years.

与此同时，在未来两年，我们希望美国立法人员能够借鉴欧盟主席提出的数字服务计划（Digital Service Act），制定新的、全面的立法来完善数字平台的安全可靠性。

4. In 2020, the streaming wars will be defined by promotion-fueled growth for new-to-market services, setting the stage for a service shakeout in 2021 as these offers expire.

4.流媒体领域的市场增长，主要得益于各平台对其新产品的推广力度（广告投放等）。到2021年，随着新品竞争的投放/推广收缩，流媒体市场热度将见消退。

The SVOD streaming wars will finally become a reality in 2020 as the major new SVODs will have all come to market by April 2020, including Disney+, Apple TV+, and HBO Max.

到2020年4月，包括Disney+、Apple TV+还有 HBO Max 在内的流媒体服务都要先后上市，因此，SVOD流媒体战争终于要在今年打响了。

Broadly, we expect that new-to-market services will grow significantly in their first years on the market and that the bulk of subscriber growth in 2020 will stem from distribution partnerships that expose them to operator customer bases, offer promotional discounts, or bundle services.

大体来说，我们认为这些新兴入局的流媒体会在先期几年大规模增长用户。2020年，用户增长的主要部分将来自分销合作伙伴关系，这些关系使它们能接触到运营商的客户群，提供促销折扣或捆绑服务。

For example, Disney’s partnership with Verizon offers unlimited wireless customers and new Fios or 5G broadband customers a year of Disney+ free; Apple will offer a year of Apple TV+ free with new device purchase; and AT&T will offer HBO Max free to all customers who already subscribe to HBO.

譬如，迪士尼和合作伙伴Version给无线用户和新的Fios或5G宽带用户提供一年免费的Disney+业务；苹果将为购买苹果电视的用户提供一年免费的Apple TV+服务；AT&T将为已经购买HBO会员的用户提供免费的HBO MAX服务。

As a result, some of these offers could artificially inflate the base on new-to-market services beyond actual consumer demand in their first year — but for the most part, that won’t catch up with services until 2021.

总之，在第一年，这些捆绑服务会人为地抬高新市场用户的原本需求。但最主要的是，这些服务平台要到2021年才能赶上老牌流媒体的服务水平。

Here’s what we expect to characterize 2020 for four of the major streaming services:

以下是我们对2020年四大流媒体服务的展望:

1）Netflix will remain dominant, but will become increasingly reliant on international subscriber growth. Netflix is a must-have among US streaming households, with an estimated 87% penetration, pereMarketer estimates.

1) Netflix会持续占据主导地位，但会更加依赖国际业务。

Netflix’s outsize investment in original content — $15 billion in 2020 — will enable it to remain a foundational service in the US, but domestic growth will slow further due to market saturation and likely as major new entrants draw interest. That will cause the service to push harder for international growth: Since 2015, international markets have collectively contributed at least two-thirds (66%) of quarterly sub additions.

Netflix是美国人必备的流媒体家庭服务，据pereMaketer数据,市场渗透率达87%。Netflix预计在2020年将投入150亿美金用于原创内容制作，使其能维持在美国作为基础流媒体服务的地位。但由于市场的饱和和新玩家的入局，其国内增长会进一步放缓。这会使之投入更多精力用于海外市场的增长：自2015年，国际市场为Netflix贡献了至少66%的季度增长。

2）Disney+ subscriber growth will exceed internal expectations sooner than expected, hitting at least 60 million subs in its first year on the market.

2) Disney+用户增长将超过内部期望，预计上市第一年至少达到6000万用户数。

Disney expects Disney+ to have 60-90 million global subs by 2024. But if growth continues at its current pace, the service already looks likely to blow its own projections out of the water — the service reached 10 million sign-ups in its first 24 hours. And as of December 11, the app had been downloaded to mobile devices 22 million times, per app-tracking firm Apptopia.

到2024年，迪士尼希望获得6000-9000万的国际用户。但如果其保持现有的增长速率，这个目标看似很容易实现——在Disney+上线24小时内就获得了1000万注册量。根据Apptopia的有关数据，截至12月11日，该应用的移动端下载量已达2200万次。

Interest in Disney+ among US consumers is high: 43% said they would subscribe, as of mid-August, per UBS. We expect that Disney+ will gain subs fast in the first half of the year thanks to its distribution dealwith Verizon, which exposes it to at least 17 million customers, while growth in the second half of the year will be powered by its expansion into new markets, including in Western Europe (March 2020) and Southeast Asia (H2 2020).

有意向购买Disney+的用户比例很高：据去年8月中旬的调查，43%的美国人表示打算订阅该流媒体。我们预计，Disney+将在上半年快速获得订阅增长，多亏了其与Verizon的合作，使其直接影响于1700万用户。与此同时，下半年将得益于其向新市场的扩张，包括西欧（2020年3月）和东南亚（H2 2020）。

3)HBO Max will initially benefit from the transfer of existing AT&T customers and HBO subscribers, but it will struggle to add new subs beyond that. 

3) HBO Max将首先受益于现有的AT&T客户和HBO的订户，但它会试图在此基础上拓展新的用户。

That’s because AT&T’s branding is confusing to consumers and potentially waters down the premium brand equity of HBO itself. HBO will be under greater pressure to prove the broad-based value prop of its service to consumers at the same time as it reinforces the prestige value of HBO. by its expansion into new markets, including in Western Europe (March 2020) and Southeast Asia (H2 2020).

这是因为AT&T的品牌会给用户带来困扰，这有削弱HBO自身品牌价值的风险。HBO将会面临更大的压力来证明其扩张后的品牌质量，同时需要维系其自身的品牌价值。在新市场拓展方面，它也将进军西欧和东南亚。

4）Apple TV+ will surpass Netflix to become the largest global SVOD.

4) Apple TV+将超越Netflix成为全球最大的SVOD。

•Apple will likely draw some sign-ups from among existing device owners, who collectively make up a global install base of 1.4 billiondevices. But offering the service free for a year with any new device purchase could independently deliver over 100 million subscribers if 50% or more of expected iPhone unit shipments in 2020 result in a consumer taking the free service. And while we would expect a percentage of trial subs to churn out after the first year, if Apple continuously offers its free one-year trial on new devices, it can likely grow the sub base on TV+ incrementally over time.

苹果可能会吸引一些原本的苹果硬件用户，目前其全球的硬件设备安装量达14亿。如果50%以上的iphone新用户都会选择订阅Apple TV+，那1年的免费服务可以为苹果带来1亿的订阅用户。但1年之后，一部分试用用户不会再续订该流媒体。如果苹果持续为新用户提供1年的免费服务，那Apple TV+的会员数会继续递增。  

图：SVOD流媒体影响力：美国受访者听说过某个流媒体服务占总受访者的人数比

5. Facebook’s attempts to win back younger users with Snapchat and TikTok copycat apps will fail by the end of 2020, and it will lose younger users in the US at an even faster rate.

5. 到2020年底，内容平台们对年轻用户争夺战中，Facebook将败给Snapchat、TikTok等后起之秀，其年轻用户将会更快流失

Facebook recently launched two new standalone apps targeted at the younger generations: Snapchat-esque Threads from Instagram (October 2019) and TikTok-like Lasso (November 2018). Both of these apps were widely panned for being transparent attempts to copy TikTok and Snapchat in order to replicate their success among teens, as the younger generation flees Facebook in the US:

Facebook最近推出了两个针对年轻人的独立应用：源于Instagram的 snapchat-esque Threads(2019年10月)和与 TikTok 类似的应用Lasso(2018年11月)。这两个应用程序被广泛批评为试图复制 TikTok 和Snapchat在年轻人中的成功，因为美国的年轻人开始远离Facebook。

Core Facebook has lost users in the 0-11, 12-17, and 18-24 age groups every year since 2015, and eMarketer expects that trend to continue through 2023. We think Facebook’s attempt to reverse that trend with this pair of new apps will fail, and that in 2020 Facebook will lose young users at an even faster clip than in 2019. 

自从2015年开始，Facebook就开始流失0-11,12-17,18-24岁的年轻用户，并且eMarketer预计这种趋势将持续到2023年。我们认为Facebook希望通过这些新的APP来逆转这一势头的做法将会失败，在此情形之下，2020年Facebook的年轻用户流失速度还会加剧。

While Facebook’s Instagram famously and successfully copied Snapchat’s Stories in 2017 and sent Snap into a tailspin for over a year, the app’s positioning among US teens didn’t budge during that time。

2017年，众所周知Instagram模仿了Snapchat的故事功能并成功将后者陷入了困境，但这并没有动摇Snap在美国十几岁的青少年心目中的地位。

Since Fall 2016, Snapchat has ranked as US teens’ favorite app, per Piper Jaffray. And, for its part, TikTok is considered the domain of Gen Zers and the short-form music-backed videos it’s popularized are widely known and referred to as “TikToks” rather than as something more general, like video clips or Stories — a degree of cultural entrenchment similar to that of now-defunct Vine. While Facebook might have helped kill Vine, it lacks the same degree of control over TikTok’s distribution and is also unlikely to act so aggressively against a competitor while under mounting antitrust scrutiny. 

自2016年秋季以来，Snapchat一直是美国青少年的最爱应用程序。至于TikTok，它被认为是Gen Zers领域的主流平台，它的音乐背景类短视频大受欢迎，但并不是作为更为广义的视频或故事领域类的爆款平台——这与其文化壁垒有关，与之类似的网站Vine已经被淘汰。Facebook可能一定程度上加速了Vine的死亡，但它对于TikTok的掌控权不及此前对Vine的控制，尤其是其自身面临着不断增多的反垄断调查时。

图：近年来13-19岁美国用户的社交平台使用偏好

Ultimately, we think Facebook will shutter at least one of its new apps next year, and the other shortly thereafter. The social company’s best bet is to continue milking Instagram and international markets for growth among younger users, although core Facebook is also seeing young people leave in certain international markets, like France and Germany, per eMarketer estimates.

最终，我们认为Facebook接下来一年会至少关停其中一个新应用，另一个应用也会随之停用。Facebook的最佳生存之道在于继续优化Instagram，融合全球市场的一些需求来拉新年轻用户。据eMarketer观察，在法国和德国，Facebook APP也在流失年轻用户。

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